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  • Writer's pictureJacob Hansen

Covid 19 Insanity Continues.

Before anyone gives their opinion about Covid they first need to be sure they are aware of the data that is essentially undisputed by the majority on both sides of this debate. Until we can agree on the basic data and rough probabilities we will just be talking past each other. And if you simply refuse to believe that any data is reliable then we are all just flying blind so no discussion is even really possible. So to begin:

How likely are you to die of Covid (including the new variants) if you are not vaccinated?

Well this varies A TON depending on age. If you catch Covid 19 (including any of the new variants) unvaccinated here is the chance of you dying based on age alone. Again these numbers are not really disputed based on the actual infection to fatality numbers.

0-14 years old- 1 in 100,000

15-20 years old- 1 in 30,000

20-40 years old- 1 in 5,800

40-50 years old - 1 in 729

50-65 years old - 1 in 220

65-75 years old - 1 in 68

75+ - 1 in 15


On the other hand:

Your chance of dying from flu= 1 in 15,000

Your risk of being murdered this year = 1 in 20,000

Your chance of dying while driving your car during the next year = 1 in 10,000 (and higher if you are young)

Your chance of getting cancer this year= 1 in 3200

Your chance of being diagnosed with diabetes during your life = 1 in 10

Your chance of being hit by lightning in your life = 1 in 15,000

It should also be noted that pre-existing conditions have a MASSIVE effect (especially heart or lung conditions or diabetes). Only 6% of covid deaths had no pre existing conditions and essentially all of those were people over 50. So with this in mind if you have pre existing conditions the risk is far higher than the above shows and if you don’t the risk is far lower. So for example a 75 year old with diabetes may have a 1 in 3 chance of dying where a healthy 75 year old may have a 1 in 50 chance of dying. Or a 45 year old obese person with a heart condition might have a 1 in 15 chance of dying whereas a healthy 45 year old may have a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying.


How likely are you to die from the vaccine?

Let’s take the high controversial estimate from Tucker Carlson of about 4000 out of the 175,000,000 vaccinated people.

That’s 1 in 43,000

But how effective are the vaccines? Short answer… VERY! Your chance of dying from covid if you are vaccinated

under 65 = 1 in about 800,000

Over 65 = 1 in 175,000

The Choice: Covid or Vaccine

The reality is that Covid 19 is not going away. Coronavirus's are what we normally call "the common cold" and Covid 19 is perhaps the most contagious strain we have ever had. Saying we will get rid of it entirely is like saying we are going to get rid of the common cold. Its just not going to happen. Therefore, now we are at a point where we must live with it. The vaccine in the US is now available to essentially every at risk person and they are incredibly effective as shown above. Thus, it makes no sense to force people to wear masks to protect people who have chosen to get Covid eventually over the vaccine. To repeat: All people who choose not to get vaccinated will eventually get Covid (probably in the next year or two). Your mask does nothing to stop this inevitability and at most just delays it a little bit.

And what about those who can't get vaccinated? Well, those people always have been and always will be around. Are we to mask forever to protect this tiny group? No. At this point this very very small group, as they always have, must take the needed steps to protect themselves (N-95 Masks, gloves, hand washing etc). Again, this is nothing new. There have always been people at high risk from various illnesses who cant get them and each year of your life thousands of those people died, but you never thought twice about it because you recognized that is just part of life and there is only so much we can reasonably do to stop it.

What about masks?

So why are government and even private institutions pushing for masks? The only reason I can see that makes any sense is that it makes them feel better. It makes them feel like they doing something. But they are not doing anything and in fact are likely being counter productive. The people who refuse to get vaccinated will get Covid eventually, its just a matter of time. When you press this point they usually say they are just "following what the experts are telling them to do" while never expecting the experts to provide a reasonable answer for why they should. In addition, if you know anything about the psychology of those who oppose the vaccine in general, you will realize pressuring the unvaccinated to get vaccinated is probably more likely to make them dig in their heels even more. Pressure drives people into deeper conspiracies. Free people tend to see more clearly as there is no "big brother" for them to rebel against and it becomes apparent the only person to blame is themselves. Furthermore, masks are a symbol of irrational fear. The other day I saw a healthy 20 year old riding his bike outside in the mountains around Lake Tahoe while wearing mask. He also was probably vaccinated. Does this young man realize that he is far more likely to be killed riding his bike than from Covid 19? His car alone is probably 3-5x more likely to kill him even if he did not have the vaccine? Yet he probably texts and drives (as so many of us do). The reality is that some people are deathly afraid of Covid for irrational reasons. Some say we should wear masks to make these people feel comfortable. I could not disagree more! Indulging irrational fear is not a solution to irrational fear and any careful study of history shows how dangerous widespread irrational fear can be. These irrationally fearful people need a frank and honest conversation about the facts and the example of thousands of people living normal lives again to snap them out of their irrational fear. It is for this reason I refuse to go along with mask mandates private or public.

So what do I think should be done?

It breaks my heart that some people who are highly at risk will refuse vaccination and die because of bad information but the way to fight bad information is with good information and that is why I have written this. At this point its time to accept that we have amazingly effective vaccines and that if you refuse to get them you are choosing to get Covid at some point (probably sooner rather than later). Even if a person under 50 in good health catches Covid it does not present a threat greater than driving a car. If people in that category don't want to get vaccinated that's not an irrational decision. However anyone over 50 or who has pre-existing conditions related to their heart, lungs, weight or blood sugar SHOULD GET VACCINATED ASAP. Masks are a pointless excessive that at this point only encourage fear, virtue signalling and blind obedience and all mask mandates public or private should stop. Not only will granting people freedom get us back on track and back to normal life faster it will likely rob much of the wind from the sails of conspiracy theories and those who push bad information.

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